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Номер журнала: 2021.4

Заголовок статьи: Confirmation of the mathematical model adequacy describing the dynamics of implementing a computer attack possibility in time


One of the urgent problems of information security at the moment is the lack of a unified approach for predicting computer attacks that is confirmed by both international and Russian experts as well as by practice. The paper proposes a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the computer attack in time built on the basis of the Diffusion of Innovations Theory. The substantiation of the possibility of using the Diffusion of Innovations Theory is given; the specifics of cybercrimes from other types of crimes are described. The adequacy of the proposed model is confirmed, in particular, by full-scale modeling of cyber-attacks on the organization's resources via the Internet site. The data of practical experiments confirm the mathematical model; in particular, the probability function of the cyber-attack implementation in time, i.e. the change in the number of infected nodes in time can be approximated using an s-shaped Pearl curve or a cascade model. The optimality of this approximation is proved by the method of least squares.


O. Makarova, S. Porshnev

Ключевые слова

computer attack, Pearl–Reed curves, theory of diffusion of innovations, dynamics of the spread of computer attack, full-scale modeling, computer attack on the resources of the organization via website, approximation.