Trade Balance of the Territorial System

Abstract

This work is part of a series of articles reflecting the ATMO model (analysis of
territorial multisectoral objects). Here, the previously described product and financial
components of this model, implementing the Leontief input-output scheme, are complemented
by the trade balance model. It comprehensively displays for each sector of the region the share
of supplies of manufactured products and transit imports in a certain territorial system. These
supplies are supported by existing product reserves. Further, these commodity flows are
balanced by supplies to other regions outside this system and exports abroad. A special feature
of the model is that it simultaneously takes into account the oncoming flows of domestic and
foreign products into the modeled region from the cluster under consideration, while forming an
import indicator into it. This value is used in the production balance block, which is also
included in the ATMO model, thereby closing the complex of blocks included in it. In the trade
balance block, commodity flows to other regions are determined by supply (transit) coefficients,
according to which exports (imports) from a particular region are distributed into a cluster of
regions for a particular sector. They are constructed as shares of the distribution of supplies of
regional and foreign-made products across the regions of the corresponding cluster, based on a
retrospective analysis of similar supplies in the past. Expressions are constructed to reflect the
relationship between investments in transport infrastructure and the costs of inter-regional
supplies of goods and equipment. The targets of this block determine the development of the
regional system aimed at increasing exports of products produced in the regions. It, in turn,
relies on the conditions of industrial growth provided by the ever-increasing demand for the
supply of products outside each region and for export.